On Wednesday next week German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle will preside over the UN Security Council session that will recommend the new nation for admission as the UN's 193rd member. Westerwelle wants to help establish "two stable Sudanese states living in peaceful co-existence" - a very ambitious goal given the realities on the ground.

South Sudan does not a have functioning public administration, police or judicial systems. Its health and education indicators are among the worst in the world. The country is full of arms and not yet demobilized fighters. Its army is oversized and undisciplined.

Long list of problems

Tax revenue is negligible - the budget relies on oil revenue and aid. The new capital Juba is a provincial outpost without any tradition of urban life. The road network in the country the size of the Iberian Peninsula is bad. The new nation lacks a unifying and forward-looking narrative that would unite the many different ethnic groups.

On the contrary: There is a simmering civil war within South Sudan between groups who were on different sides in the conflict with the North. In addition, there are many local conflicts over cattle, land and the power of ethnic groups. In 2011 alone so far, more than 1,600 people have been killed due to internal conflicts in South Sudan - many more than in the Darfur region.

Relations with the North remain tense. Many issues related to the critical border regions remain unresolved and have contributed to an increase in hostilities over the past month. At the same time, the Southern Sudanese government faces a population which expects a quick peace dividend.

For many in the government which is largely comprised of former rebel fighters from the SPLM/A independence means paying a peace dividend to themselves and their extended personal networks. To this end, the SPLM/A seeks to cement its control over the levers of power and resources instead of allowing for democratization. Some exceptions notwithstanding, South Sudan is lacking a political elite that cares for the public good rather than personal privileges.

In a nutshell: All ingredients are in place for South Sudan to become a failed state.

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