21 January 2007

GPPi hosts dinner discussion on Syria and Iran

GPPi hosted a dinner discussion with Hillary Mann and Flynt Leverett on Wednesday, January 17 2007 at the German Foreign Office’s International Club. Mann and Leverett, both veterans of the US National Security Council and experts on Middle East policy, were in Germany for GPPi's first Transatlantic Energy Security Dialogue which took place in Potsdam on January 18 and 19 (sponsored by the German Marshall Fund). The dinner discussion focused on current US policy towards Syria and Iran and the question to what extent diplomatic engagement with these two countries would help to stabilize the situation in Iraq and the broader region.

At least since the publication of the report of the Iraq Study Group, the idea that engagement of Syria and Iran holds the key to future stability in Iraq has gained significant political capital in the United States. Bringing Syria and Iran in from the diplomatic cold, so the argument goes, will help to stop sectarian blood-shedding in an increasingly unstable Iraq, and will also facilitate reasonable regional stability in the Middle East. Following basic realist instincts, the report of the Iraq Study Group argues that "a nation can and should engage its adversaries and enemies to try to resolve conflicts and differences consistent with its own interests." Not surprisingly, the suggestion to include Iran and Syria in the "New Diplomatic Offensive" has proven controversial, to say the least. Many question Iran's and Syria's intentions and argue that the price for diplomatic engagement -- a nuclear weapon for Tehran, restored regional hegemony over Lebanon for Damascus -- would be too high; others doubt that Iran and Syria are actually able to effectively influence events in an increasingly volatile and chaotic Iraq. The Bush Administration has so far rejected taking steps in that direction. European governments -- and most notably Germany -- have advocated engagement with Iran and Syria.

During the discussion, Mann and Leverett shed some light on the current political debate in the US. Their own first-hand experience with both countries – writing a book on the Syrian succession and dealing with Iranian negotiators, respectively – ensured a lively and insightful debate. The discussion was attended by representatives of the German Foreign Office, the German Bundestag, and leading German news media.

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